How the Global Risk Landscape Is Evolving and What It Means for Security Leaders

As we reach the midpoint of 2025, our Chief Security Analyst, Michael Rogers, shares his perspective on how the global risk landscape has evolved, and how the forecasts outlined in our Risk Outlook 2025 have played out so far.

In this Q&A, he highlights which predictions have proven accurate, what unexpected developments have emerged, and what security leaders should focus on in the months ahead — from rising geopolitical tensions to the growing impact of AI-driven disinformation.

Which Predictions from the Risk Outlook 2025 Have Played Out So Far?

Reviewing our 2025 Risk Outlook at the midway point of the year, the work of our analytical teams has proven to be quite prescient. The report highlighted the key themes of political polarisation, militancy, conflict and regional tensions, which have each been important features of the threat landscape so far this year. I feel this is a real testament to their rigorous approach to collaborative and structured analysis. As I review the team’s judgements, I am struck by the specific assessments laid out in the report that are playing out today or that have played out already.

• Middle East: The team assessed that an emboldened Israel would seek to further degrade Iran’s military capability by expanding direct operations in Iran – a projection backed-up by recent Western intelligence reports.
• Africa: Analysts asserted that the Kinshasa-Kigali ceasefire would not deter conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This was justified in January when the Congolese Rebel Group March 23 Movement launched an offensive against Goma. Forecasts surrounding an expansion of conflict in Sudan were also substantiated early in the year.
• United States: The team projected that deportation of undocumented migrants could prompt escalatory protest campaigns in urban centers – borne out by recent events in Los Angeles and other cities.
• Colombia: Elsewhere in the Americas, we alluded to continued violence in Colombia's Cauca and Valle del Cauca departments, despite the Petro government’s Total Peace Plan, in line with a string of bombings in Cali in early June by members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia's Estado Mayor Central (FARC-EMC).
• South Asia: Perhaps most notably, we specifically warned of increased militancy in the disputed Kashmir region, which is administered in parts by India and Pakistan – each of which claims it in full. This judgement has proven to be quite important to the evolution of the global threat landscape thus far in 2025, as underscored by the 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir and subsequent conflict between India and Pakistan. This was a really insightful judgement that spoke to a dynamic with direct influence on what has been one of the most significant escalations of the year thus far. This was an insightful judgement that spoke to a dynamic with direct influence on what has been one of the most significant escalation of the year thus far.

What Escalations or Crises Have Emerged That Were Not Predicted?

This is a good question – it’s always important to revisit your analytical process in view of developments you did not project.Overall, I feel the team’s analysis has aligned with how the threat landscape has evolved across the first six months of 2025.

Our analyst team referenced natural disasters, influenced in some cases by climate change as a key aspect of the risk outlook. The report spoke to the increasing impacts of natural hazards in otherwise low risk environments. Though the analysis highlighted wildfires as a key hazard, it did not speak to growing concerns surrounding wildfires in and around urban settings – particularly the wildland-urban-interface – a phenomenon illustrated in the January 2025 fires in the Los Angeles area. The 7.7 magnitude earthquake that struck Myanmar, Thailand and other countries in the region in late March is another crisis that, by its nature, fell outside the scope of our forecast.

What Should Security Leaders Expect in the Second Half of 2025?

 I feel that the first half of 2025 has proven our warning about the fragmented and volatile nature of the geopolitical landscape to be highly accurate. Two months ago, for the first time in history, two nuclear powers engaged in what could be described as conventional military conflict. Furthermore, we have seen — and will likely continue to see — a trend of overlapping, cascading, and in some ways interrelated conflicts across multiple theaters. Hot or simmering conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and between India and Pakistan hold considerable potential for further escalation, with implications for the security environments of distant regions. This is a trend that is likely to persist through the final months of the year.

Another key area to monitor over the next six months is the extent to which the United States’ adoption of a more unilateral and interest-driven foreign policy reshapes the geopolitical order. Perceptions of US disengagement may embolden both state and non-state actors to test boundaries — escalating grey zone activities.

Beyond these themes, I believe the global threat landscape in the second half of the year will be profoundly shaped by the health of the information environment. Misinformation and disinformation are already prominent and growing features of the risk landscape in 2025. Yet we have not truly begun to reckon with the threats posed by generative AI-based mis- and disinformation.

The deepfake detection platform Deep Media has projected that more than 8 million deepfakes will be shared online in 2025 — a sixteen-fold increase on 2023 figures. I was truly struck by this projection. Misinformation and disinformation act both as threat generators and risk amplifiers — capable of creating perceived threats where none exist and intensifying existing dangers.

In the remaining months of 2025 and beyond, security managers must ensure that their intelligence collection and response plans are equipped to account for the complexities of today’s information environment.