Calmer on Paper, Riskier in Reality: El Niño to Influence 2026 Hurricane Season

How Organizations Should Prepare

With the Atlantic hurricane season officially begun, on June 1st, International SOS is urging organizations to treat this year's below-normal projections as a call to action, not a reason to scale back preparedness efforts as the anticipated El Niño pattern introduces a more unpredictable risk picture.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin with 8-14 named storms, including 1-3 major hurricanes. This year’s forecast is primarily driven by strong El Niño climate conditions during the peak of the season. These conditions will present favorable conditions in the central Pacific, but less favorable to cyclone formation in the Atlantic.

Josh Dozor, General Manager of Medical and Security Assistance at International SOS, said:

Major hurricane landfalls have and will occur during below-average forecasted seasons. It only takes one storm under El Niño conditions, as we experienced with Hurricane Andrew in 1992, to have a massive impact on community infrastructure and business continuity. Rapid storm intensification has become the norm, so it’s important to maintain organizational vigilance and emphasize your response plans throughout the season well before a storm’s approach.

Victor Ferreira, Engagement Director, Consulting at International SOS, added:

Many organizations find out that their preparedness plans have weak spots when it’s already too late, the 2025 season served as a reminder of how quickly conditions can escalate. The season generated 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, including three Category 5 storms: Erin, Humberto and Melissa. The major storms caused widespread disruption across the Caribbean and U.S., proving that even a moderate season can carry big risks. In our International SOS’ 2026 Risk Outlook Report, only 35% of organizations felt confident that they could mobilize teams rapidly, and when it comes to hurricane preparedness, that gap becomes critical since a storm’s intensity can shift within just hours, compressing the time that teams have to react.

To help companies address the evolving risks from severe weather, International SOS offers a dedicated Hurricane Preparedness Plan service to help them maintain the highest level of Duty of Care. Each plan is custom-designed to help businesses prepare for, and respond to, hurricanes to minimize disruptions and keep workforces safe. Each plan is specific to an organization’s profile, taking location, operations and criticality into consideration.

International SOS also hosted a webinar - Hurricane Forecast 2026: Risk Considerations - to walk through the 2026 forecast landscape, key operational considerations and practical steps to enhance preparedness.

For those looking to strengthen their current hurricane preparedness plan, International SOS recommends the following steps to build an effective strategy:

• Map workforce and facility locations against historical hurricane impact corridors to understand your exposure risks and vulnerabilities.
• Establish clear, pre-defined thresholds for when operations are suspended and personnel are relocated and make sure those thresholds are communicated up and down the organization before storm season begins.
• Prepare employees with specific guidance on shelter-in-place supplies including food, water, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and communications equipment.
• Plan for operational suspensions lasting a week or more, including remote work infrastructure and backup communications in the event of power loss.
• Review and test evacuation and shelter-in-place options now, not when a watch is posted.
• Draft and pre-approve mass notification messages and test your notification systems before they're needed.
• Run a tabletop exercise against your crisis management and business continuity plans to surface gaps while there's still time to fix them.