Navigating the Risks of the 2024 US Election: A Guide for Business Travelers

As the 5 November general election approaches, the threat environment in the United States is evolving, posing significant risks of political violence and social unrest until the presidential inauguration on 20 January 2025. Business travelers should stay informed and take precautions. With a record number of voters and at least 65 countries holding national elections, political unrest alerts have surged, highlighting the need for organizations to prioritize employee safety. The 2024 US election features Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as key candidates, with potential scenarios impacting personnel safety. International SOS recommends staying updated, planning for demonstrations, and having emergency response plans in place.

As the 5 November general election approaches, the risk environment in the US is evolving and holds considerable potential for escalation. The current period until the presidential inauguration on 20 January 2025 is expected to see heightened risks associated with political violence and social unrest. Business travelers and travel professionals need to be aware of these risks and take appropriate precautions, as well as have additional support in place for where and when needed.

This year, more voters than ever in history will head to the polls, with at least 65 countries set to hold national elections. In 2023, 47% of International SOS’ global alerts were connected to political unrest, and so far in 2024, we have issued nearly 3,000 political unrest alerts globally. These figures underscore the increasing importance of organizations enabling employee visibility of political activity at their destination.

Understanding the 2024 US Elections

The US presidential election, held every four years, is, of course, highly consequential for Americans as well as for the global community. The president, elected for a four-year term, is the head of the executive branch and commander in chief of the US armed forces. The election process involves a series of state primaries and caucuses where each party's candidate is chosen. The two main political parties in the US are the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. The electoral college system determines the winner rather than a national-level popular vote. 

For the 2024 election, the Democratic nominee is Vice President Kamala Harris, who stepped in after President Joe Biden withdrew. Harris is the first woman, first African American and the first Asian American to be Vice President and the first black female presidential nominee lead the ticket of a major US political party. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump (in office 2017-2021) is the nominee, aiming to become only the second president in US history – and first since the 1800s – to win a second non-consecutive term.

The Advancing Campaign Period

There are a range of ways in which the heightened threats can manifest and impact personnel in the US during the conclusion of the electoral period. Here, we use the structured analytical technique known as the Cone of Plausibility to illustrate how the threat environment in the US could evolve throughout this uncertain and potentially unstable period.

Understanding the Cone of Plausibility

The Cone of Plausibility is an analytical technique used to generate and assess possible outcomes by identifying key drivers and challenging assumptions. This technique helps analysts and decision-makers consider the spectrum of plausible scenarios, from baseline (most likely) to higher risk, lower risk, and wildcard scenarios. It is not intended to predict precise outcomes but to inform preparation efforts.