As the 5 November general election approaches, the threat environment in the United States is evolving, posing significant risks of political violence and social unrest until the presidential inauguration on 20 January 2025. Business travellers should stay informed and take precautions. With a record number of voters and at least 65 countries holding national elections, political unrest alerts have surged, highlighting the need for organisations to prioritise employee safety. The 2024 US election features Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as key candidates, with potential scenarios impacting personnel safety. International SOS recommends staying updated, planning for demonstrations, and having emergency response plans in place.
As the 5 November general election approaches, the risk environment in the US is evolving and holds considerable potential for escalation. The current period until the presidential inauguration on 20 January 2025 is expected to see heightened risks associated with political violence and social unrest. Business travellers and travel professionals need to be aware of these risks and take appropriate precautions, as well as have additional support in place for where and when needed.
This year, more voters than ever in history will head to the polls, with at least 65 countries set to hold national elections. In 2023, 47% of International SOS’ global alerts were connected to political unrest, and so far in 2024, we have issued nearly 3,000 political unrest alerts globally. These figures underscore the increasing importance of organisations enabling employee visibility of political activity at their destination.
Understanding the 2024 US Elections
The US presidential election, held every four years, is, of course, highly consequential for Americans as well as for the global community. The president, elected for a four-year term, is the head of the executive branch and commander in chief of the US armed forces. The election process involves a series of state primaries and caucuses where each party's candidate is chosen. The two main political parties in the US are the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. The electoral college system determines the winner rather than a national-level popular vote.
For the 2024 election, the Democratic nominee is Vice President Kamala Harris, who stepped in after President Joe Biden withdrew. Harris is the first woman, first African American and the first Asian American to be Vice President and the first black female presidential nominee lead the ticket of a major US political party. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump (in office 2017-2021) is the nominee, aiming to become only the second president in US history – and first since the 1800s – to win a second non-consecutive term.
The Advancing Campaign Period
There are a range of ways in which the heightened threats can manifest and impact personnel in the US during the conclusion of the electoral period. Here, we use the structured analytical technique known as the Cone of Plausibility to illustrate how the threat environment in the US could evolve throughout this uncertain and potentially unstable period.
Understanding the Cone of Plausibility
The Cone of Plausibility is an analytical technique used to generate and assess possible outcomes by identifying key drivers and challenging assumptions. This technique helps analysts and decision-makers consider the spectrum of plausible scenarios, from baseline (most likely) to higher risk, lower risk, and wildcard scenarios. It is not intended to predict precise outcomes but to inform preparation efforts.
Evolving Analysis
An earlier analysis from March 2024 assumed that former president Donald Trump and incumbent Joe Biden would be the Republican and Democratic nominees, respectively. However, the wildcard scenario nearly became a reality with an attempted assassination of Trump on 13 July, followed by Biden dropping out of the race weeks later. This underscores the need to consider a range of scenarios and regularly update analyses.
Key Drivers Influencing the Threat Environment
International SOS has identified five key drivers that will significantly impact personnel safety and business continuity during this period:
1. Information Environment and Public Engagement:
- The vast network where information is spread, consumed, and interpreted, ranging from mainstream media to social media and fringe outlets.
- Misinformation and disinformation, often exacerbated by foreign influence operations, create a complex ecosystem where US citizens access information, form opinions, and interpret developments.
2. Global Conflicts:
- Various current global tensions and political unrest have the capacity to impact the security environment within the US.
3. Candidates and Wedge Issues:
- The Democratic and Republican presidential nominees and their policy objectives regarding contentious, politicised, and divisive domestic issues.
- These issues are likely to inspire acts of targeted political unrest and/or demonstrations, which are operationally impactful within the US.
4. Economy:
- The performance of the US economy and public perception of it are influenced primarily by inflation, the cost of living, the unemployment rate, and other measures most readily felt by the public.
5. Guardrails:
- Agencies, organisations, institutions, and social mores that counterbalance the prospect of escalation.
Recommendations for Business Travellers
- Stay Informed: Regularly monitor reliable news sources and updates from International SOS to stay up-to-date about the evolving threat environment.
- Ensure the International SOS Assistance App is downloaded on your phone, with notifications and location services enabled, to receive and access relevant intelligence and guidance.
- Plan journeys accounting for demonstrations. Follow all official directives and vacate the area at the first sign of unrest.
- Emergency Preparedness: Have a clear emergency response plan, including communication protocols and evacuation procedures.
By understanding the key drivers and potential scenarios outlined by the Cone of Plausibility, business travellers can better prepare for the uncertainties of the upcoming US elections. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and prioritise safety in all travel decisions.
How International SOS Can Help
For almost 40 years, International SOS has been at the forefront of supporting the health, safety and wellbeing of our clients’ workforce across the globe. We have provided our clients with 24/7 medical, security and personal travel assistance and on-the-ground support across 1,200 locations globally. International SOS clients can download our full insights report on the US elections in ManagerView here.
Watch the webinar on traveller safety to stay informed and prepare your organisation by clicking here.