Samoa’s recent elections marked a significant turning point for the Pacific nation’s political and security environment. Lead Security Analyst Mus’ab Yusof is joined by Security Specialist John Milo to analyse what the results mean for organisations and travellers operating in-country.
Why was this election particularly important?
- It was the first early election since the 1980s.
- Triggered by a legal case involving a key figure in the ruling FAST party.
- Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa dissolved her minority government after failing to pass the budget.
How do things stand in Samoa after the election results?
- The TRUST party won 31 out of 52 seats—a strong and somewhat unexpected majority.
- FAST performed well in rural areas; HRPP did better in urban centres like Apia.
- Political party influence has grown, increasing voter turnout and political tensions, especially online.
What role did social media play during the elections?
- Diaspora communities (in the US, Australia, NZ) heavily influenced online discourse.
- Social media amplified political personalities (e.g., La’auli and Tuilaepa).
- Misinformation spread, including accusations against former PM Tuilaepa.
What happens now in Samoa’s post-election process?
- A period of election petitions and legal appeals is underway.
- Uncertainty remains over the final composition of Parliament.
- Legal cases involving La’auli could lead to protests and counter-protests.
- By-elections and constitutional requirements for women’s representation may further affect Parliament’s makeup.
What does La’auli’s leadership mean for political stability?
- His 31-seat majority offers a stable government, reducing the risk of early dissolution.
- However, La’auli faces legal challenges, including serious charges like perverting the course of justice.
- His self-appointment as Minister of Police and Attorney General raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest.
What is our advice to clients in Samoa immediately after this election?
- Expect political gatherings and disruptions, especially near courthouses.
- Liaise with local contacts for updates on gatherings.
- Plan travel routes to avoid affected areas and allow extra time.
- Anticipate heightened security near courts and government buildings.