Natural hazards and malaria: A shifting threat map

As the world marks World Malaria Day 2025, the sobering reality remains: malaria continues to claim lives at an alarming rate — with nearly 600,000 deaths recorded in 2023 alone. This, despite the disease being both preventable and treatable.

In sub-Saharan Africa, malaria isn’t just a lingering health issue - it's a growing threat fuelled by natural hazards, rapid urbanisation, increased mobility, and overstretched healthcare systems. For businesses operating in high-risk regions, malaria is not only a humanitarian concern but a strategic one. It disrupts operations through absenteeism, drives up medical costs, cuts productivity, and, in its most tragic form, results in the loss of life - affecting employees, communities, and the economic stability of entire regions.

The risk map shift

Isabelle Hagner, Director of Public Health for Middle East and Africa at International SOS, says

As global organizations confront the complexities of public health challenges like malaria, in regions vulnerable to extreme weather, it is imperative for corporate entities to take proactive leadership roles in safeguarding their employees and communities.

Communities are known to be breeding grounds for asymptomatic malaria, particularly in regions where the disease is endemic. Therefore, a multifaceted approach is necessary, beginning with education and awareness programs that inform individuals about prevention strategies and the importance of prompt treatment.

While precaution and education will continuously be advised for corporations operating in endemic regions, there are also public health concerns about the rise of malaria in non-endemic regions due to natural disasters. 

Speaking to the shifts in malaria cases, Dr Chris van Straten, Global Health Advisor, Clinical Governance at International SOS highlights that several factors, including natural hazards and changes in transmission dynamics have influenced the frequency and severity of malaria cases in previously non-endemic areas. A great example he recalls is in northeastern Tanzania, where a study observed a significant decline in malaria prevalence from 2003 to 2014, attributed to increased use of bed nets and reduced exposure to Anopheles mosquito bites. However, a resurgence was noted after 2018, particularly in highland areas, likely driven by changing weather patterns such as increased temperatures and humidity. Recent changes in human migration patterns appear to have also affected vector dynamics.

Can surveillance systems and AI support affected regions?

Surveillance systems for malaria in non-endemic areas are being adapted through the integration of advanced diagnostic technologies and enhanced data collection methods. In non-endemic regions, where malaria is often imported and not immediately suspected by clinicians, the use of enhanced communication strategies and ultra-sensitive diagnostic tools are crucial.

Dr van Straten comments,

In addition to these diagnostic advancements, surveillance systems are being optimized to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of malaria data. For instance, in urban settings like Maputo, Mozambique, expanded case notification forms and geolocation of cases have been used to better characterise local epidemiological contexts, which can inform targeted interventions. This approach can be adapted to non-endemic areas to ensure that imported cases are accurately tracked and managed.

Furthermore, climate models are increasingly being integrated into public health planning to anticipate and mitigate the spread of malaria, particularly in the context of natural hazards. These models help predict changes in malaria transmission patterns by incorporating various climatic and environmental variables, which are crucial for the development of early warning systems and targeted interventions.

With continued urbanisation and technological advancements, digital health tools and AI are increasingly playing a role in the early detection of malaria risks.

Public health and corporate action against malaria

A big part of getting ahead of this shifting risk map relies on public health communication to get newly vulnerable regions ready and prepared to tackle the risks associated with malaria. This can be done by enhancing awareness, knowledge, and preventive practices. Effective communication strategies can significantly influence community behavior and attitudes towards malaria prevention and control.

Hagner comments,

Beyond that, corporates operating in these newly affected regions, are not well prepared or able to monitor these changes, which can inadvertently place their staff in harms’ way. The good news is that with the right medical partner and ability to monitor these changes and keep abreast of the ongoing research in this domain, companies can be better prepared to mitigate malaria risks,

Furthermore, for corporations operating in remote and rural areas, they should leverage their influence to manage environments effectively, reducing mosquito breeding grounds through proper waste management and sustainable water management practices. Providing insecticide-treated nets and facilitating access to preventive medications can further bolster community resilience against malaria.

Hagner concludes,

This is where partnering with local healthcare initiatives and integrating emergency response plans will enhance preparedness for malaria outbreaks, especially in the aftermath of severe weather events. By embracing these strategies, organizations not only fulfill their corporate social responsibility, but also foster healthier communities, ultimately contributing to the broader goal of eradicating malaria. Collaboration, innovation, and a commitment to sustainable practices will define the corporate leadership necessary to combat public health crises of this scale.