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New COVID-19 Cycle

COVID-19 transmission is dynamic

The level of COVID-19 transmission in a country, state, or city, is dynamic, and is, in general, related to the level of local transmission and the use of NPIs (non-pharmacological interventions). 

For the general public, the simplest NPIs are known to be effective.  These include physical distancing, increased hygiene, and wearing face masks.

For organisations, NPI’s could include mitigation measures such as workplace screening, workplace zoning, controlled transportation methods, personal health monitoring, as well as the use of appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE).

The International SOS COVID-19 Cycle

Our new visualisation highlights the potential cyclical nature of COVID-19 transmission. Some locations with high levels of transmission are able to reduce transmission, and other locations with low levels of transmission may find transmission levels increasing again. 

The dynamic nature of COVID-19 transmission levels will continue to challenge organisations in managing their business resilience. Evolving your business continuity measures to react to these cycles will help to keep your workers safe and for you to provide a safe and healthy workplace.

  • Depending on where your operating location is on the COVID-19 cycle, there are likely challenges that may be exacerbated as transmission levels change, such as:
  • Heightened mental health challenges impacting your workforce especially during a resurgence
  • Growing security challenges posing new threats to business resilience (e.g. civil unrest, protests, xenophobic attacks)
  • Evaluating your on-the-ground and remote support, for ongoing health and wellbeing risks of your workforce
  • Deciphering the most relevant and up-to-date information to allow for informed and timely decisions regarding a return to operations or return to travel
  • Providing open communication channels with your workforce to share validated and up-to-date information and best practices 
  • Proactively reviewing business continuity plans and procedures alongside various stakeholders across your organisations to allow for agile operational changes.

Covid-19 Cycle

COVID-19 Cycle Definitions

Imported cases only: all cases have been imported from other countries / territories.

Limited activity: Countries in this category may have one or more of:

  • no reported cases (with ongoing testing).
  • minimal number of new cases per day (sporadic or small clusters).
  • no reported cases (with ongoing testing).
  • minimal number of new cases per day (sporadic or small clusters).

Increasing activity:

  • moderate number of new cases per day.
  • increasing trend.

Outbreak: Countries in this category may have one or more of the following:

  • > 1,000 cases (in first wave).
  • high number of new cases per day.

Decreasing activity:

Countries in this category may not have reached Outbreak but have all of the following:

  • moderate number of new cases per day.
  • decreasing trend (> 2 weeks declining case numbers).

For more information about the COVID-19 cycle, visit our pandemic site here