It could happen like this...
The first reports
Rumors of an outbreak of unusually severe respiratory illness in two villages in a remote province prompt the WHO to dispatch a team to investigate. The team finds that people in the villages have been falling sick for about a month and that the number of cases is increasing each day. The team is able to identify at least 50 cases over the previous month. All age groups have been affected. Twenty patients are currently in the provincial hospital. Five people have already died of pneumonia and acute respiratory failure.
Specimens sent to the lab
Surveillance in surrounding areas is increased, and new cases are identified throughout the province. Respiratory specimens collected from several patients are tested at the national laboratory and are found to be positive for type A influenza virus. The isolates are sent to the WHO Reference Centre and are found to be influenza A(H*N1), a subtype never isolated from humans before. Gene sequencing studies further indicate that most of the viral genes are from a bird influenza virus, with the remaining genes derived from a human strain. More cases appear in surrounding towns and villages.
Spread to neighboring countries and attempts at quarantine
The new influenza virus begins to make headlines in every major newspaper, and becomes the lead story on news networks. Countries are asked by WHO to intensify influenza surveillance and control activities. Key government officials throughout the region are briefed on a daily basis, while surveillance is intensified. Over the next two months, outbreaks begin to take place in neighboring countries. Although cases are reported in all age groups, young adults seem to be the most severely affected. One in every 20 patients dies. The rate of spread is rapid, and countries initiate travel restrictions and quarantine measures.
Social effects
Educational institutions are closed. Widespread panic begins because supplies of antiviral drugs are severely limited and a suitable vaccine is not yet available. One week later, there are reports that the H*N1 virus has been isolated from airline passengers with respiratory symptoms arriving from affected countries.
Other continents affected
A few weeks later, the first local outbreaks are reported from other continents. Rates of absenteeism in schools and businesses begin to rise. Phones at health departments ring constantly. The spread of the new virus continues to be the major news item in print and electronic media. Citizens start to clamor for vaccines, but they are still not available. Antiviral drugs cannot be obtained. Police departments, local utility companies and mass transit authorities experience significant personnel shortages that result in severe disruption of routine services. Soon, hospitals and outpatient clinics are critically short-staffed as doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers themselves become ill or are afraid to come to work.
Fearing infection, elderly patients with chronic medical conditions do not dare to leave home. Intensive care units at local hospitals are overwhelmed, and soon there are insufficient ventilators for the treatment of pneumonia patients. Parents are distraught when their healthy young adult sons and daughters die within days of first becoming ill.
Several major airports close because of high absenteeism among air traffic controllers. Over the next 6-8 weeks, health and other essential community services deteriorate further as the pandemic sweeps across the world.
ARE YOU AND YOUR COMPANY PREPARED?
Are you prepared to prevent or minimize the human morbidity and mortality, the social disruption and the economic consequences caused by an influenza pandemic?
Experts agree that another influenza pandemic cannot be prevented. A worldwide flu outbreak will certainly occur. The only question is when it will happen. International SOS can help you get ready |